I usually stick to trading just one currency pair, the most popular one, the EUR/USD. Occasionally, if I don’t see any high probability trades on the horizon with the EUR/USD, I will then trade the GBP/USD. But I am certainly most comfortable with the good ‘ol EUR/USD, and the reason is because I believe it is quite predictable – for me, that means that the currency pair usually “respects” it’s major support and resistance points and when it does break through a support or resistance point I can pretty much count on getting some pips in a low stress and high probability breakout trade. Also when the EUR/USD pair is overbought it will most of the time pull back and when it is oversold it also will likely retrace soon. Of course there is always a day of exception, but overall, I’ve found the EUR/USD to be a pair I can trust 80% of the time to behave how it is expected to behave.
Last week, though, I was wondering what other trader’s think about this question – so I went on an informal quest to ask traders I know, both online and off, as to what they thought was the most predictable currency pair. The answers actually surprised me. I thought nearly everyone’s top vote would also be the EUR/USD. But not so….not at all.
Many of the traders who responded said that the AUD/USD was definitely the most predictable. Other favorites were the NZD/USD, the EUR/GBP, and the USD/CHF. And yes, the EUR/USD was definitely in the top 3 for most. Those 5 pairs had the most votes overall by the traders who responded, with the AUD/USD and the EUR/USD coming out as the top two most predictable currency pairs overall.